The Tipping Point
Iran is on the Tipping Point of toppling an oppressive regime.
The Iranian regime that’s been in place for 47 years…sine 1979 is facing it’s biggest threat to their deadly grift. Since 1979, the Iranian people have been oppressed in the name of religion, when the Ayatollah and his cronies came to power after deposing the Shah, and also after trying to go after exiles who spoke against them. Most notably the mullahs did not like the criticisms, including from author Salmon Rushdie who wrote The Satanic Verses. In fact, everybody, Iran has used the tactics of fear and punishment to make sure everybody did what they said, when they said, and how they said it. Of course, there were presidents of Iran who wanted things to go peacefully, but the Mullahs, they decided they did not want that. Though through time, the Regime has faced protests…but nothing of the sort that would cause a tipping point if you will. Just like in other despotic regimes…Iran’s mullahs allow for “protests” to make them look like they have some modicum of freedom. However, there are powder keg moments that we must be aware of.
First in 2022, there was a young woman by the name of Masha Animi. On September 14th, 2023 Animi was arrested for the crime of not having a proper head covering. In Iran modesty police rove the streets to make sure people are following their law. They arrested Animi, but she died in custody which lead to a major protest. This was a powder keg moment. While the Regime arrested thousands, then released them, there were deaths instigated by the IRCG (The Republican Guard). That instilled the fear of death into the Iranian citizens. The trouble however was brewing and the powder has exploded.
The lack of clean water.
Iran has been facing a serious drought in the past few years. In fact, their fresh water sources are below dangerous levels to the point where people have to ration water. In villages, this is equally devastating since the taps have run dry, and they have to travel to get water…or worse…if they’re desperate enough they’ll use unsafe rain water that’s not processed for drinking. This is of major concern since without water, dehydration will happen. Also with this humanitarian emergency, questions have been starting to pop up in the populace…”Why is the regime more concerned about other countries more than us?’ That is, Iran has been known to use proxies to keep their hands clean. For example, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Also Because of this crisis, there are people who are making the pilgrimage to Turkey to at least be able to get some supplies, and water…or at the very least cross over. to escape the economic hardships.
Economic Hardships
Also the one thing that kicked off the protests is simple economics. The Iranians have been hit by sanctions by the USA and other nations which hurt them financially. That is under sanctions, goods and services are hard to come by. This also includes pharmaceuticals, food, clothing, building supplies, etc. Now, prior, the Average Iranian was able to take care of their families and to buy and save a little extra with the Iranian Rial. However, the Rial has dropped in value by 70%. Think about it like this…when a currency loses their value that fast, it becomes worthless. Also this also initiates hyperinflation. In Iran, the inflation rate has hit 40-43%. This combined with the drastic drop in the Rial has caused business to demand the use of the US Dollar (probably from the black market since again, Iran is Sanctioned). This means that the Iranian Rial is functionally useless pieces of paper. No amount of printing will help them out.
This makes basic goods and services that much more difficult to buy. Practically eggs, meat, and bread, and milk are more expensive. In fact, it’s to the point where the average Iranian cannot save and buy an ounce (28 grams) of gold. It has gotten that bad, plus the lack of water, and general dissatisfaction of the Regime is a perfect storm that kicked off on December 28, 2025.
When the Shopkeepers go…so does Iran.
In 1979 it was the Shopkeepers who helped to overthrow the Shah. It also was the time where the protesters took American Hostages and kept them for 144 days. This did cost Jimmy Carter the 1980 election. Since then, the shopkeepers in the major cities have been a barometer of what’s going on in Iranian society. However, once the shopkeepers closed up shop on December 28th, that was the spark. Remember, the Rial lost 70% of its value, and shop keepers realize they couldn’t pay their staff or stock. They also realized that their customers couldn’t afford the basics with the 40-43% inflation.
In fact when the shops closed, and the keepers protested…they were joined up by women, students, and others who just were generally tired of the BS. This was the spark that was needed for the Iranians to fearlessly protest. In other words, the courage became contagious, and the people decided they were going to protest consequences be damned.
let’s also keep in mind that the Ayatollah and the mullahs haven’t been seen in days, but are still trying to run things hidden. That’s not going to happen for long, and their “allies” Russia and China can do nothing for them.
What happens should the Regime falls?
It’s very much this…geopolitics will be actually altered in unimaginable ways. Remember in the 2010s when the spark of Arab Spring happened in Tunisia and spread to parts of the middle east such as Libya, Egypt, and Syria? This here is a bigger version of that. Let’s think about the implications this has for the power in the rest of the Middle East, and even for Russia, India, and China. First the middle east as a whole will see that should this regime falls, and the people put in a democratic government not run by Religion but by common sense, and an actual constitution…things will spread out.
This is a horrible development for Vladimir Putin who has depended on the Shaheeds, other ammunition and such being given to him by the Iranian defense industry. However, that has collapsed as the government has become unstable. Also this was a partnership of convenience, rather than a true partnership. With that said however, this is now in the roughest part of the protests.
What now?
You have to remember one thing. This isn’t going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination. Security Forces have killed and injured protesters using live rounds, but that’s going to pour gas over the fire, as the protesters will find out who did it, and they will lay siege on any weapons and security buildings to burn them to the ground. The Ayatollah and his mullahs on the other hand know they’re on borrowed time the same as the Assad regime.
Also you have to remember if this regime falls, then it’s not going to be that easy to reform the government. However, the Iranians are most willing to put in that kind of work and protections to make sure nothing like this happens again. There’s as lot more moving parts as this will go on. I bid you to not forget about this, but to look up what’s going on as the Western media isn’t reporting on this…but are reporting on Trump’s illegal invasion of Venezuela, and the illegal arrest of Madauro and his Wife. For now, let’s concentrate on what’s going on Iran, because if this regime falls…then everything in geopolitics changes for generations to come.